Asking Artificial Intelligence to Predict Different Future

 In my posts over the past couple of months I've pointed to the #ETMOOC2 group which is learning about Artificial Intelligence and tools like ChatGPT.  Members are testing new tools and sharing ideas in a variety of platforms.  One writer that I keep pointing to is Kevin Hodgson, who shares ideas on his blog. Today, in this article, he wrote about a tool called TinyStorie, which can be used to write short children's stories.

Last week, in this article, he wrote about Google's AI platform, called Bard.

Last week on Twitter someone wrote about ChatGPT and I asked, "Has anyone asked ChatGPT to write about what the future would have looked like if Al Gore had been elected President of the U.S. in 2000?"

Image created using Scribble Diffusion

Today, I decided to see how Google's Bard works, and posted a set of questions.  Rather than point you to a Google doc where I've saved the responses I'm posting them below.  If you don't like the questions I asked, or the responses, then post your own questions and share the answers you get!

--- begin Bard questions and responses --- 

I asked Bard to write a story predicting what the world would be like today if Al Gore had won the 2000 US Presidential election.  

 If Al Gore had won the 2000 US Presidential election, the world would be a very different place today. Gore was a strong advocate for environmental protection, and he would have taken a much more aggressive approach to climate change than George W. Bush. He would have also been more likely to sign the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In addition, Gore was a strong supporter of education and healthcare. He would have increased funding for both of these important areas, and he would have made college more affordable for students.

Gore was also a more experienced politician than Bush. He had served as Vice President for eight years, and he had a deep understanding of the issues facing the country.

If Gore had been elected, the United States would have been a more progressive country. We would have been a leader in the fight against climate change, and we would have made significant progress in improving education and healthcare.

Of course, it is impossible to say for sure what would have happened if Gore had won the election. However, it is clear that the world would be a different place today if he had been elected.

Here are some specific examples of how the world might be different today if Al Gore had won the 2000 election:

• The United States would have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This would have helped to slow the pace of climate change and mitigate its effects.
• Gore would have been more likely to invest in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. This would have helped to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and make our country more energy independent.
• Gore would have been more likely to expand access to healthcare. He would have supported the creation of a public option for health insurance and made it easier for people to afford coverage.
• Gore would have been more likely to invest in education. He would have supported increased funding for public schools and made college more affordable for students.
• Gore would have been more likely to take a diplomatic approach to foreign policy. He would have been less likely to invade Iraq and Afghanistan, and he would have worked to build relationships with other countries.

Overall, the world would be a better place today if Al Gore had won the 2000 election. He was a more experienced and progressive politician than George W. Bush, and he would have made the United States a more just and sustainable country.

I then asked, "How would he have responded differently to the 9/11 terrorist attack? Would he have invaded Iraq? How would the world look now if he had not invaded Iraq?"

Al Gore would have responded differently to the 9/11 terrorist attack than George W. Bush did. He would have focused on building international cooperation to fight terrorism, rather than invading Iraq. He would have also been more likely to invest in homeland security and intelligence gathering.

It is unlikely that Al Gore would have invaded Iraq if he had been president in 2003. He was skeptical of the Bush administration's claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, and he believed that the invasion would be a costly and unnecessary war.

If Al Gore had not invaded Iraq, the world would be a very different place today. The war in Iraq has been a major source of instability in the Middle East, and it has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. The war has also cost the United States trillions of dollars.

Without the war in Iraq, the United States would have been able to focus on other priorities, such as fighting terrorism and improving the economy. The world would also be a safer place, as there would be no ongoing conflict in Iraq.

Here are some specific examples of how the world might be different today if Al Gore had not invaded Iraq:

• The United States would have been able to focus on other priorities, such as fighting terrorism and improving the economy.
• The world would be a safer place, as there would be no ongoing conflict in Iraq.
• The United States would not have spent trillions of dollars on the war.
• The United States would not have lost the lives of hundreds of thousands of soldiers.
• The United States would not have damaged its reputation in the world.

Overall, the world would be a better place today if Al Gore had not invaded Iraq. He would have made the United States a safer and more prosperous country.

I then asked, "If Al Gore had been elected president would we have the same level of polarization as we have today? Would Donald Trump have been elected President in 2016?"   

It is impossible to say for sure whether political polarization would be as severe today if Al Gore had been elected president in 2000. However, it is likely that the level of polarization would be lower.

Gore was a more moderate politician than George W. Bush, and he was more likely to reach across the aisle and work with Democrats. He would have also been less likely to engage in the kind of inflammatory rhetoric that has contributed to polarization in recent years.

It is also possible that Donald Trump would not have been elected president in 2016 if Al Gore had been president in 2000. Gore would have been a stronger incumbent, and he would have been more likely to unite the country after the 9/11 attacks.

Of course, it is also possible that polarization would have continued to grow even if Al Gore had been president. The factors that are driving polarization are complex and multifaceted, and they are not easily controlled by any one person.

However, it is clear that Al Gore would have been a different kind of president than George W. Bush. He would have been more moderate, more willing to compromise, and more likely to unite the country. These qualities would have made him a more effective president, and they would have helped to reduce polarization in the United States.

Finally, I asked,  "If Al Gore had been elected in 2000, and re-elected in 2008, would Barack Obama ever have been elected President? Would Joe Biden have been elected vice-president, then President in 2020?"   

It is impossible to say for sure whether Barack Obama would have ever been elected president if Al Gore had been elected in 2000 and re-elected in 2008. However, it is likely that Obama would have faced a much more difficult path to the presidency if Gore had been in office.

Gore was a popular and well-respected politician, and he would have been a strong incumbent. He would have also been able to draw on the support of the Democratic Party establishment. Obama, on the other hand, was a relatively unknown and inexperienced politician. He would have had to overcome a lot of obstacles to win the presidency.

It is also possible that Joe Biden would not have been elected vice president or president if Al Gore had been in office. Biden was a close ally of Gore, and he would have been less likely to run for office if Gore had been president.

Of course, it is also possible that Obama and Biden would have still been elected president and vice president, even if Gore had been in office. The political landscape is complex and unpredictable, and it is impossible to know for sure what would have happened.

However, it is clear that Al Gore would have been a different kind of president than George W. Bush. He would have been more moderate, more willing to compromise, and more likely to unite the country. These qualities would have made him a more effective president, and they would have made it more difficult for Obama and Biden to win the presidency.

---- end Bard questions --- 
 

What would your questions have been? I asked Bard. How would ChatGPT have answered?  Could this be turned into a short story using an AI tool like TinyStorie?  

One response stood out to me, which was,  "Gore was also a more experienced politician than Bush. He had served as Vice President for eight years, and he had a deep understanding of the issues facing the country."   On a national level this is probably true, but Bush had been Governor of Texas, and his father had been President. His political skills should have been better. 

At the left is a photo of me addressing students and volunteers at one of our year-end graduation ceremonies, for the tutor/mentor program I led from 1975 to 1992. 

We did not have the Internet or Artificial Intelligence then. Desk top computers were just emerging. But I was asking our students and volunteers to imagine all they could do to assure that each student finished high school and went on to college, jobs and careers.  

Imagine if they had been able to use Bard, or ChatGPT to ask "What are all the things we need to know and do to assure that all kids born of living in a high poverty area today were starting a job and career by their mid 20s?"    

That's still a question we need to be asking today.  

Last week on Twitter Kevin Hodgson posted this 

@tutormentorteam and I are having an interesting conversation in annotated margins of blog post by @telliowkuwp about whether a site-based AI Generative Text/Search Engine might sustain knowledge/offer solutions for future viewers/readers. https://t.co/BGYRuorzib #etmooc2 #clmooc

— KevinHodgson (@dogtrax) May 13, 2023

I encourage you to visit the conversation and add your own thoughts.

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